Why school shootings might be more common than you think
School shootings include more than just “mass shootings” and their impact extends beyond those who are injured or killed
In 2021, there were 42 shootings in U.S. schools. News articles tend to note, correctly, that this number is a record high. But you might have also heard this number in a different context. That’s because there’s a common reaction to concerns about school shootings that goes something like, “Actually, school shootings are very rare and it’s silly to be worried about them”.
Many people will point out that 42 is actually a small number compared to 128,961, the total number of K-12 schools in the U.S. In one case, a “risk communication consultant” noted that the daily risk of a child dying in a school shooting is just 1 in 614,000,000, despite the fact that pretty much no one uses daily risk of death for any other causes. These attempts to downplay the impact of shootings fail to address the basic concern of most parents, which is simply, “what is the chance that my child will experience a school shooting at some point in their schooling?”
The first step to answering this question is recognizing that school shootings affect far more people than those who are killed. It goes without saying that the lives lost in these events are the largest of the costs they impose. But there are also broader impacts to consider. Our objectives for school safety can and should go beyond our children’s physical survival.
If 2021 rates persist, 1 in 97 American children will experience a school shooting at some point in their schooling.
Many students have lost classmates, experienced trauma or lost a sense of control and security. Studies on survivors of school shootings find that they have increased dropout rates and absenteeism1, worsened academic performance2 and increased risky behavior3. Longer-term studies find worsened education and employment outcomes4, worsened health and well-being5 and higher risk of dying by accident or by suicide6. Some effects even extend to the children of those affected7. Many of these effects are not small, and they are not all restricted to the “mass shootings” that get the most media attention.
According to data collected by the Washington Post, of the 42 school shootings in 2021, the median number of students enrolled during a school shooting was 882. The total number of K-12 students who experienced a shooting in their school in 2021 was nearly 44,000.
The second step to quantifying the risk is accounting for the fact that students spend around 13 years in K-12 education. Extrapolating the data to an entire K-12 experience suggests that, if 2021 rates persist, 1 in 97 American children will experience a school shooting at some point in their schooling8. That’s probably a higher number than most people expect. In other developed countries, the percent of children expected to experience combat situations in order to attain a high school education is zero.
As with many things in American life, the risk of experiencing a school shooting varies by race and ethnicity. Among white students, the risk is 1 in 190. Among black students, it is 5 times as high, at 1 in 38. For Hispanics, it is 1 in 90. And for Asians it is 1 in 290.
The mass shootings that generate national attention are not as common as other shootings. Mass shootings are expected to impact 1 in 1200 students at some point in their schooling, and are more commonly experienced by white students (1 in 740). Targeted shootings, on the other hand, will impact 1 in 180 students, with a disproportionate impact on black students (1 in 65).